We might have finally seen a peak in greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation.
According to new research by energy thinktank Ember, the amounts of coal and gas burnt globally for electricity generation in the first half of the year fell, very slightly, despite growing electricity demand.
It’s not a huge drop – just 27TWh, or 0.3% of global consumption – but it is significant.
In the same period, electricity from renewables surpassed that from coal-fired power stations for the first time. That’s driven by a startling 31% increase in solar generation, with ever-cheaper photovoltaic panels making solar the cheapest and most convenient option in most places.
I was surprised to learn that Hungary has the biggest national share for solar, with close to 30% of overall generation coming straight from the sun. Pakistan meanwhile saw the greatest increase over the past four years.
Perhaps the most significant detail is that the fall is driven by China – fossil fuel generation there fell by over 58TWh, or 2% of the national total. Again, not a huge drop, but very significant.
People who try to dismiss any climate action with a bleat of “But China…” are going to have to find a new line of denial.
Likewise, India’s growth in renewables is comfortably outstripping growth in overall demand, with the absolute amount of both coal and gas falling.
Meanwhile in the dirty west
The US and EU are the outliers among the big polluters, with electricity-related emissions increasing from last year.
Europe saw increases of 13 million tonnes of CO2, largely due to poor conditions for wind and hydro. The US meanwhile increased emissions by whopping 33 million tonnes – partly down to growing commercial demand, particularly for data centres of questionable value, and partly because of a resurgence in coal driven by high gas prices.
Meanwhile in the UK, recent numbers from Carbon Brief show the growing importance of renewables in our electricity supply. While most of the UK’s record in reducing emissions since the 1990s is down to the move from coal to gas, and the offshoring of energy-intensive industries, the growth of offshore wind is undoubtedly a national success story. New analysis from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit shows that UK wholesale electricity prices could be a third higher without renewables.
The Ember report is positive news overall, though there’s little room for complacency. Global emissions were still increasing, as of WMO’s last full-year report for 2023 (update 15/10: and again in 2024). The International Energy Agency has said emissions are likely to peak in the near future, and I’ll be fascinated to learn if the slight decrease from electricity generation is enough to counter growth from other sectors including agriculture and aviation.
The big risk now is that growing demand for electricity will outstrip the deployment of low-carbon generation (nuclear as well as renewables) and lead to continuing growth in polluting fossil power.
And then there’s the worsening political climate in the west. We’re seeing growing denial of climate science and obstruction of investment in too many territories, with political narratives largely driven by the incumbent fossil fuels sector and uncritically regurgitated by a populist right.
To counter that narrative, we need to challenge the bullshit propagated by too many politicians, and also keep telling positive stories about the successes of the energy transition – not least that it’s a damn sight more affordable and more secure than continuing dependance on fossil fuels with all their external costs.
It’d be a tragedy to give up on the journey just as we traverse the peak.