The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record high last year. That shouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone, but it does underline the urgency of action.
Average carbon dioxide concentration reached 420ppm in 2023 – an increase of more than half from pre-industrial levels. Along with rises in other greenhouse gases, that puts us past the concentration which could allow an even chance of avoiding catastrophic costs by holding the average temperature rise to 1.5°C.
There is some scope for optimism – the International Energy Agency’s latest World Energy Outlook predicts that global CO2 emissions will peak in the near future (human-caused emissions hit a record 57.1 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2023). That’s good news in the sense that we’re set to reduce the rate at which we’re accelerating towards catastrophe.
However, based on current stated policies by the major governments, there’s little confidence of a continuing reduction in global emissions after that peak, to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050. We’re still on track for a 2.4°C rise in global average temperatures, way beyond the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement.
The IEA emphasises the need for a new energy system which prioritises security, resilience and flexibility – built to cope with geopolitical uncertainty as well as the extreme weather and rapidly changing climatic conditions that are the result of emissions to date.
The simple fact is that future energy systems must be based on low-carbon sources of electricity, with electric power replacing fossil fuels in many applications such as transport, heating and industrial processes. That will require intensive investment in supporting infrastructure such as grid technologies and energy storage. Already, there’s £3 of investment in grid and storage for every £5 invested in renewable generation.
More than 560GW of new renewables capacity was installed worldwide last year (60% of that in China), for a total of some 4.25TW. Of course, thanks to the inherently variable nature of most renewables tech, capacity shouldn’t be confused with actual output.
While the growth in low-carbon power is still lagging the growth of global electricity demand, renewables and nuclear are together forecast to generate more than half of the world’s electricity by 2030.
In the UK, the new Great British Energy is aiming to support 20-30GW of new offshore wind capacity through seabed leases granted by 2030 – potentially doubling current capacity, and leveraging £30-60 billion of private investment over the coming decades.
Compared to renewables, there’s relatively little growth expected in global nuclear capacity – just 55%, from 416GW in 2023 to 647GW in 2050.
The UK is aiming for 24GW of nuclear by 2050, effectively all of which will have to be built and commissioned in the next 25 years (EDF is aiming to extend the life of the 1.2GW Sizewell B to allow it to contribute to the 2050 target, but it’s hard to see it continuing much beyond then). Given the rate of progress since the UK revived its new build programme in the 2000s, that’s massively challenging.
Ultimately, what it means is that a lot of effort and investment is needed to build sustainable energy systems, nationally and globally. That will affect almost every business, whether you’re playing an active part in the transition or just trying to manage your own emissions. And there’ll be a lot of stories to tell along the way.